Friday, January 02, 2009
Omar Ali 

Dr. Manzur Ejaz has been writing for some time about the underlying socio-economic problems in Pakistan and pointing out that no matter what the religious or other issues may be, the underlying problems are not uniquely religious, they are socio-economic and are very similar in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. The question is if the existing constitutional/institutional arrangements can handle these problems or not? In India, these problems have led to dozens of Maoist insurgencies and other disturbances and they have certainly not been solved as yet. But a plurality of the people seem to be willing to work within the existing system, which is why the existing structures may well be able to handle the stresses (albeit much more ineptly than idealists would like).

But in Pakistan, more and more people feel that the existing structure does not look capable of handling the crisis. Even after elections were held, power could not be transferred from the old establishment in any meaningful way. The judiciary has not been restored and instead the whole possibility of restoration of rule of law has been systematically undermined. An additional complication comes from the fact that the army and the US embassy hold significant hidden power (and are frequently working at cross purposes) so the "public face" of politics and administration has little credibility. Every crucial argument has a "behind the scenes" component that is bigger than what appears in public. No democracy or republic can function in this strange manner.

There are 170 million people in the state. Most of them are poor and are mercilessly exploited and abused every day. They have been patient almost beyond belief, but if they loose all faith in the state, then they can and will look for alternatives. What is the alternative? When Musharraf was in power, the mainstream parties could have been imagined as an "alternative". By destroying the credibility of that alternative, the stage is being set for a terrible disaster. There is a section of the military-mullah establishment that is seriously working for an Islamist takeover of the whole region, not just Pakistan. Their dreams are so audacious, most people cannot even believe they are serious and interpret their actions in terms they can understand. But the fact is, they are serious and they have plans, not just dreams. Until now they have been handicapped by the fact that unlike the tribal areas, Punjab and Sindh are relatively developed, have a larger stake in the world economic system and are culturally unprepared for the jihadist¢s vision of religion. But if current trends continue and modern democratic politics looses all credibility, then the anarchy may reach a level where the jihadists are the only organized force left. It¢s true that a jihadi takeover will not constitute a workable alternative. But unworkable alternatives have been known to take power, and then prove their unworkability in long drawn out and painful disasters. A social-democratic alternative that focuses on the real problems of the people is needed urgently before the whole shebang goes up in flames.

This blog has been published with Omar Ali's permission, which was first published at wichaar.com on January 01, 2009.